tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post2430591384287284622..comments2024-02-21T05:08:31.128-05:00Comments on Deep Throat: Twas the night before Christmas.....Deep Throathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-45800932646110850252019-03-01T12:57:17.320-05:002019-03-01T12:57:17.320-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.aretehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05240318195392938157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-26995810059083654262019-01-04T11:20:08.483-05:002019-01-04T11:20:08.483-05:00All they have to do is revalue a certain asset on ...All they have to do is revalue a certain asset on CB balance sheets and all the dollars needed will be available w/o the liabilities. Grumps LaBastardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14516927214877780910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-73292326965244550042018-12-27T12:26:27.207-05:002018-12-27T12:26:27.207-05:00Loved reading this. Thank you for spending the tim...Loved reading this. Thank you for spending the time writing up your thoughts and observations like this. I must admit, I have a lot to learn to really understand this.<br /><br />That being said, wouldn't the USD do well when sh*t hits the fan? If so many obligations are USD denominated, and the Fed is reducing the supply of USDs, won't demand for USD go UP? Pardon the dumb question... I must be missing something.Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-43182287790757697072018-12-24T19:17:47.276-05:002018-12-24T19:17:47.276-05:00Stumbled upon your blog from a link in Jesse's...Stumbled upon your blog from a link in Jesse's (AC's) "Matieres d' Reflexion". Thoughtful, wonderfully sarcastic, and interesting. I'll be back for more food for thought.<br /><br />It used to be that the US & old money was the hot money, particularly in foreign markets. Over the past few years, I came to the assumption that China and offshore is the new hot money. It will be interesting to see where it tries to find comfort /survival during the next downturn. <br /><br />The imbalances in China are probably worse than even some of the most pessimistic estimates. In that respect, even with potentially 1/3 of US GDP imaginary thanks to the creeping share of hedonic adjustments, the US is still one of the better houses on the proverial bad street - I hope. Regards, LMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-46184992863553641062018-12-21T10:28:34.280-05:002018-12-21T10:28:34.280-05:00I just.. love your work. I work as an Analyst cove...I just.. love your work. I work as an Analyst covering Tech and your blog was the catalyst for me to dig way further into the Chinese plan than I would have otherwise, and I've staked my reputation on the views I developed and executed on. I can't thank you enough, my popcorn (and positions) is ready and watching for what is next. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-44169562733940547452018-12-21T10:20:24.031-05:002018-12-21T10:20:24.031-05:00market meltdown followed by $ crash and money prin...market meltdown followed by $ crash and money printing ala Wiemar - so how you will get prepared for a scenario like this? Pay down debt? go off grid? because this painful adjustment of biblical proportions to a lot of people might make some crazy/desperate. Safety (food, shelter, personal safety, basic needs) becomes a priority in order to survive, can it get to that point you think? Thank you for well written analysis, eyeopening. And Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones, and a Happy and Healthy New Year.Crishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17906989853057724426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-9168857236682935972018-12-20T11:11:25.488-05:002018-12-20T11:11:25.488-05:00Just going to throw this out there, I agree with a...Just going to throw this out there, I agree with all your analysis, and it jives quite well with what Jeff Snyder has been writing about for years regarding the malfunctioning eurodollar system (as he calls it). I responded to your post in October mentioning to look at commodity charts. Commodities in a way are somewhat representative of this offshore dollar expansion, since the offshore dollar creation is used to finance things that require commodities to be purchased (copper for example, which is used heavily in Chinese construction as well as collateral). <br /><br />Dollar-linked commodities (that's all commodities, but some more than others) started crashing in 2012, 2014, and have re-started that again in 2018. This is likely a product of this dollar bubble coming unwound as eurodollar dealers step back from the dollar creation business. A proper unwind of this offshore dollar bubble implies that gold would go back to around 400-500 dollars per ounce, copper goes back to approximately 1$ per ounce, oil crashes even further, etc. <br /><br />I totally agree that the rest of the world wants to de-dollarize, but it's only because they've gorged themselves on all these dollar-based obligations. These countries' and companies' efforts to de-dollarize is a function of liquidity, they're doing it because there is little to no liquidity in this system, and they're desperate to cut the amount of dollars flowing out of the system so they can still repay their obligations. Now that lenders aren't lending as much in dollars (which is essentially a synthetic short on the dollar, and why we got the commodity bubble int he first place) the dollar is rising, and that alone is putting a heavy squeeze on everyone's ability to repay their dollar-based commitments. <br /><br />So aside from just adding personal commentary and observation, my only thought is that I don't see how the world is going to de-dollarize. They want to do this, but it's only because they've borrowed more than they can afford and don't want to pay back what's owed. Until there is a viable alternative, the biggest risk to the global financial system is going to be the unwind of this eurodollar credit bubble, which first showed how nasty it can be when liquidity dries up back in 2008. There have been (failed) attempts at an alternative, but any real transition is going to take a LOT of compromise, a lot of time, and we'll likely need a global crisis to get people to actually realize how big of an issue this is. <br /><br />Until then, in my opinion, the dollar should head higher, and commodities should continue to get crushed in the long run. The only solution here is to delay the dollar unwinding by re-starting the dollar lending machine, which just puts more long-term strain on the system, but can temporarily push the dollar lower (which is likely what we saw in 2016-2017). Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-69085558969416421272018-12-20T08:47:31.967-05:002018-12-20T08:47:31.967-05:00Thanks for all the work you put into this blog, wh...Thanks for all the work you put into this blog, which I enjoy reading very much. Every new lengthy piece you post feels like Christmas. Keep at it! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com