tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post5141148837849535386..comments2024-02-21T05:08:31.128-05:00Comments on Deep Throat: Alibaba - 1/24/17 Q3 Earnings Call....20 seconds of magic...Deep Throathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-52252617686595552102018-01-13T22:42:24.303-05:002018-01-13T22:42:24.303-05:00I just realized that you've missed something.
...I just realized that you've missed something.<br /><br />Most of Alibaba's business is actually wholesale (business-to-business). No wonder it won't reconcile with the total *retail* sales reported in China.<br /><br />It does seem that Jack Ma has perfected the art of transferring money and control directly to himself and Simon Xie, however. Even if Alibaba is running 100% of China's economy... does it get the money from that, or does Jack Ma personally get the money?Nathanaelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-13287143712464604352017-01-26T17:18:39.631-05:002017-01-26T17:18:39.631-05:00Agreed, the comparison isn't definitive, but a...Agreed, the comparison isn't definitive, but as you say, if Alibaba is the first company on the NBS survey list (and there are myriad Chinese eCommerce companies....I think I provided a list of the top 100 in a prior post) shouldn't their GMV be a fraction (probably a large fraction) of the NBS number? Rather than significantly larger than the entire category? You've described ZTO appropriately....they are simply an accomplice. If you ever get a chance to tour a "distribution hub" you'll be aghast...it's piles of packages, bicycles, scooters and tuk-tuks....the aforementioned "capital" is "donated" by "independent contractors" working for next to nothing in the "ecosystem"...they search through the piles... ...looking for a package addressed to an address they might be able to find....and somehow it gets delivered....sounds like a pretty labor-intensive, un- sustainable business model to me.... Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-13229401038110913532017-01-26T15:30:07.380-05:002017-01-26T15:30:07.380-05:00LOL.....My guess is that Xu committed the greatest...LOL.....My guess is that Xu committed the greatest financial crime of all.....he didn't bribe the right people.... Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-66879115822660156122017-01-26T15:19:08.900-05:002017-01-26T15:19:08.900-05:00http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/chinas-ca...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/chinas-carl-icahn-hedge-fund-billionaire-sentenced-five-and-half-years-prison<br />Maybe there is still hope..... "When this is over....the CPC will give him a medal"Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10933833111920427707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-9398805121247272102017-01-26T11:33:23.569-05:002017-01-26T11:33:23.569-05:00Look at it this way.....Jack Ma is a state sponsor...Look at it this way.....Jack Ma is a state sponsored Robin Hood. His mission is to scour the globe looking for naive investor capital. Robbing from the rich, redistributing the capital to politically connected Chinese elite. Joe, Maggie, Daniel and the fee thirsty Western Investment bankers are his "band of merry men". He's simply using "Alternative Facts" rather than a long bow and arrows to accomplish this heist. When this is over....the CPC will give him a medal.<br /><br />Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-44040091800047892292017-01-26T11:00:24.688-05:002017-01-26T11:00:24.688-05:00This comment was initially posted by an avid reade...This comment was initially posted by an avid reader who did not intend to post in his own name. We've deleted his/her initial post and are re-posting his/her comment anonymously, per his/her request.<br /><br />"Is there any chance that one of Alibaba's investments eventually pays off big enough to provide underlying value for its stock price? Berkshire Hathaway is maybe not the best example since it's equity portfolio holds real, prosperous companies, but as a percentage of Berkshire's stock price, the equity portfolio underpins approx. 20% of its stock price. Or can Alibaba evolve into a truly profitable company faster than the house of cards crumbles? You've mentioned in the past that the scheme can persist for a long time and that it's impossible to time. As Alibaba 'grows' does it become stronger or does the house of cards get bigger? This is unclear to me. I think I see a growing train wreck, but it can be intimidating to see things like Alibaba acquiring companies at such a rapid pace. Isn't it possible that they provide seed capital to the next Google and end up sitting on a gold mine? Thanks for the terrifically entertaining and educational blog." <br />Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-58397728841126944702017-01-26T09:37:28.363-05:002017-01-26T09:37:28.363-05:00I just think that comparing BABA's GMV with NB...I just think that comparing BABA's GMV with NBS's online retail data doesn't lead to any definitive conclusion. BABA is likely the 1st one on NBS's survey list.<br /><br />BTW, take a look at ZTO, one of BABA's accomplices. Absurdly high margin there as well and very little hard assets. It always amused me that everyone in the BABA scheme claims to have an "asset-lite" business model. So who in the world is holding the hard assets and earning below cost capital return?At the Moneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042742193373421438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-35000848783945154092017-01-26T09:17:14.891-05:002017-01-26T09:17:14.891-05:00Alibaba is ubiquitous...there's no question. ...Alibaba is ubiquitous...there's no question. They are huge. I've never implied/said they weren't. But their financial structure, controls and statements exhibit all the signs of a gigantic, systemic fraud. As you can see by my posts, I'm staking my reputation on it. Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-71560247295404575972017-01-26T00:51:57.034-05:002017-01-26T00:51:57.034-05:00At this point, you'd have to really wonder why...At this point, you'd have to really wonder why Jack is doing this, if he's the one really behind it. I mean, it's like BABA as a stock is this piece of Chinese advertisement for the world.<br /><br />I reckon Jack's going to be having more and more problem loans pop up with the ANT Financial platform. The bond insurers and underwriters can only insure so much. So who's going to be taking responsibility if there's social unrest from this platform? It may very well end up being a political issue.<br /><br />Though he's a multi-billionaire, he cannot escape the clutches of the CCP. In the end, it's the CCP that owns Alibaba and Jack Ma. I've never heard of any private business person say that they'd be willing to sacrifice their company to make sure there's continued free trade.<br /><br />They've made him to be somewhat of a spokesperson for China in terms of new age thinking, entrepreneurship, etc. But you can tell this guy is not doing it because he loves the attention. He knows that his house is built on quicksand. Much face will be lost in the future.Umbriferumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03789170065954759991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-2114321377684171892017-01-26T00:14:10.377-05:002017-01-26T00:14:10.377-05:00I, too, think BABA's ture profitability is mos...I, too, think BABA's ture profitability is most likely much lower. The unconsolidated Cainiao is probably where they hide operating expenses. Its accomplices are paid generously in unexplained CapEx and BABA stock, which is why that SBC line is getting so big. (BTW, 20-F p. 116. Not sure why the 16B SBC included 5.5B share awards paid to BABA employees by Ant Financial, which BABA Group Holding doesn't own).<br /><br />However, you might have underestimated BABA's dominance in China's online retail market. JD.com, the 2nd largest online retailer, is about 5-6% of BABA's size in term of GMV. Personally, I don't remember I purchased any physical goods from other e-commerce websites.<br /><br />At the Moneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042742193373421438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-11444559063641544112017-01-25T14:45:10.785-05:002017-01-25T14:45:10.785-05:00LOL....yup....they are 6% of GDP now....$650B/$10....LOL....yup....they are 6% of GDP now....$650B/$10.8T. As long as everyone is making money these things can go on for a long time. BABA Stock financing is a cottage industry in Hangzhou...Deep Throathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712515268051858186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478408299955066555.post-50082697610329308122017-01-25T13:44:12.013-05:002017-01-25T13:44:12.013-05:00I was again anxiously awaiting your take on BABA’s...I was again anxiously awaiting your take on BABA’s quarterlies and once again, I do believe you hit the nail on the head. I’m surprised that there was no mention at all about the 100,000 cars sold on singles day, “equivalent of the typical sales volume of 1,000 Chinese auto dealerships in one month”. I would think that would have allowed bragging rights for Alibaba on the CC as well as their product mix. It shouldn’t be long now before BABA does 10% of all of China’s GDP. What an amazing company I say! <br /><br /> I just find it odd that this has continued as long as it has without being exposed as there is a significant amount of money to be made by exposing this possible deceit. But as you pointed out, a few million in SBC that’s in US dollars would be quite a motivation to keep the gravy train rolling. I just wonder how many loans there are to Chinese nationals against their BABA stock holdings. As Jack Ma has stated, “I’m not selling my stock, I’m just getting a loan against it”<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11428302383543190365noreply@blogger.com