You'd have to have been living in a cave if you've not noticed how the delivery, the medium, the style and the content or our communication has changed over the years. As you might recall, one-half score and seven years or so ago, Google's Peter Norvig came up with a wonderful parody of the Gettysburg Address as a Powerpoint presentation. My recollection of this piece was so memorable and entertaining that today, in honor of Mr. Norvig and as a salute to our brand new, self inflicted government shutdown, re-opening, and potential re-shut-down looming again on February 8th, I thought I'd have a little fun with "Tweeting":
The Gettysburg Address via "Tweet"....
Abe: "Fourscore and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, on this continent, a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal."
Tweet: "87 years ago we started the USA. Today, SLAVERY! NOT GOOD! But some of the slave owners are probably good people...."
Abe: "Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting-place for those who here gave their lives, that that nation might live."
Tweet: "We have a VERY DANGEROUS SOUTHERN BORDER. I feel bad for these dead Gettysburg losers. AMERICANS ARE WINNERS!! BUILD A WALL! WIN! WIN!"
Abe: "It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate—we cannot hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract."
Tweet: "AMERICA FIRST! CIVIL WAR....NOT MY FAULT! NOT MY PROBLEM!"
Abe: "The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.
Tweet: "GETTYSBURG NEVER HAPPENED! FAKE NEWS!"
Abe: "It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."
Tweet: "Stock Market's UP! Unemployment DOWN! Taxes DOWN! Black people have more jobs than ever! Jobs coming back. USA...USA....USA!"
http://rmc.library.cornell.edu/gettysburg/good_cause/transcript.htm
To be honest, and I'm serious, I'm not sure which, the original, the PowerPoint or the Tweet is more effective. In context, they each get the job done, impacting their intended audience in their own particular way.
Although (of course), I wasn't there, my guess would be that the audience at Gettysburg, surrounded by their wounded loved ones, shortly after burying their dead, had a much more personal, emotional, tragic and memorable experience than those who click through PowerPoints in a conference room or scan through Tweets on their phones at the airport. Lincoln's words were more personal to those souls who endured and survived Gettysburg than anything most of us could possibly, or hopefully ever will, imagine.
The point I'm making is that we all receive (and perceive) messages based on our personal experiences. Our own experiences filter and interpret the message. Whether you are an insurance salesman, economist/blogger; a Senator, investor, accountant or banker, a foreign government official/operative/diplomat, a soldier deployed overseas in harms way; recently or chronically unemployed, or like most of us, just trying to make your way, as best you can on this big blue marble, we all hear the same words, but we hear them differently. We choose to hear what we want to hear. The "truth" has become malleable.
Somehow we've gotten to the point where concepts like good and bad, right and wrong, accurate and inaccurate are an opinion, rather than an absolute. As we sit on our overstuffed La-Z-Boy couches in front of our Facebook feeds, Tweets and favorite TV talking heads, oblivious and sheltered from any point of view that conflicts with our own limited, preconceived experience, we are fitfully outraged by attacks on our version of the truth. Whether Democrat or Republican, we agonize over our leadership under assault by philistine-barbarians who don't understand the issues and lie about the facts (as we see them). Everyone who disagrees with us and/or threatens our own vested interest is consequently labeled either a bigoted, war mongering racist or a flag burning anti-American liberal. When we hear something we disagree with, our immediate response is "Oh Yeah!....so's your Mother!" If/when we objectively consider another persons point of view our like-minded constituents deem us to be spineless and weak. Open minded compromise is a wimp's disease and must be eradicated.
We fret over whether the current government shutdown will disrupt our day. Worry consumes us as we wonder whether our government benefits will be delayed, or services we depend on will be reduced or disrupted. We feel threatened by evil people from mysterious foreign lands who will surely bomb us and/or take our jobs if given half a chance, even though we've never met any of these people and have no intention of doing so. We wait patiently, even though we've done nothing over the last decade to improve our personal circumstance, for some mythical person to walk through our front door and offer us the job of a lifetime. Finally, in the absence of any productive endeavor to fill the void, we spend our time analyzing the never ending flow of misdirection, develop deep "E-relationships" with like-minded anonymous Facebook "friends" and bitch about whose fault "it" all is, and of course, who we should blame.
Our Disfunctional Government
I believe that this might be the first (and hopefully only) time that I'll ever say anything in this blog that could be even remotely considered "political" in nature. This blog is dedicated solely to the examination of "general silliness" in the US Financial Markets. On the other hand, when "general political silliness" impacts financial markets I, for better or worse, feel an obligation to speak up.
Right now, our government has been "shut down" and reopened with another "shut down" ominously looming on February 8th. To me, "shut down" is a bit of an oxymoron since nearly every government service in America remains operational. Every government service is apparently deemed to be "essential". Checks are still being written, mail is being delivered and most government employees are being paid (or their wages are being accrued). Troops are still deployed and the missile silos are still manned. Of course, if you planned a trip to the Smithsonian or Yellowstone, you might be out of luck, at least for now. This, in my humble opinion is a teeny-tiny price to pay for a front row seat to watch our muddling democracy in action.
How did this "shut down" come about? Right now, we can point to our wonderfully amazing two party system of government where, unfortunately, neither side is willing to give ground on, well, just about anything. The Republican "blow it up and fix it later" approach (blowing things up is always more fun than fixing them!) has run head long into the Democrats' "if we just spend more money with no accountability to keep everyone happy everything will eventually work out" plan.
As we've witnessed first hand, based on the last election, the Democrat's plan has been violently disrupted, leaving them scrambling for a "win". Oddly enough, they've chosen to draw a line in the sand with......wait for it.... the Dreamers! Yeah!.....that's the ticket....that's something they can publicize and win! Forget about fixing healthcare, funding for infrastructure or education or stopping the most regressive tax cut in history......the Dreamers is the issue on which the Democrats will make their last stand.
From high altitude, we can see the logic. This should have been a no-brainer. This should have been an "easy" compromise and an easy political victory for the minority Democrats. They could finally tell their constituents "Hey!.....we did something!". Moreover, with a compromise, there's no additional cost to extending/keeping DACA. This could have been agreed to behind closed doors, slipped into the appropriation at the 11th hour, as so much usually is, before anyone has a chance to read it, understand it or Tweet about it, and nobody would have known (or cared) that much about it. Business as usual. Yet, in our current politically charged "win at all cost" environment, our legislators chose to publicize this debate in a presumed, yet ham handed effort on the part of both parties to rile up their respective bases. The result is that they've shown the American people that they are woefully incapable of compromise on virtually any level, much less on policy issues that should be as cut and dried and solvable as this.
Now....Let's Talk Economic Development and GDP Growth!
As a cold, calculating financial person, here's the way I see it. Without regard to personal feelings or human hardship, if our government chooses to let the Dreamers stay in America, it costs us nothing additional. Everything remains as is. Steady as she goes. If we choose to deport them, the direct cost, over time, would be somewhere around $23 Billion. (The ICE Budget in 2016 was $3.2 Billion and they deported 240,000 people. Per the AIC (American Immigration Council) in 2012 there were roughly 1.8 Million people who could possibly qualify as Dreamers.....and a total of roughly eleven (11) million "undocumenteds"....probably about half of the 1.8 million actually met the DACA requirements in 2012 ....so we'd have to really ramp up the staff to grab 'em all! Moreover, since some/many of these people are successful, respected, hard working folks, my guess is that if we tried to throw them out of the country and take their property they might put up a bit of a legal fight, so the deportation cost per-capita could/would increase significantly. So let's say, due to additional staffing, training inefficiencies and unknown legal costs that the bill to get rid of these folks would come in at an even $30 Billion.
One dirty little secret, that's simply not discussed in polite company, when you think about it, that $30 Billion is actually a boost to US GDP! (Remember C+I+G+(x-i)?) If we toss out the Dreamers we're pumping up the "G". This is obviously part of the administration's master plan for economic growth! I suppose you could also argue that there are probably some "bad hombres" and potential terrorists in this group, so we, as Americans, if we chose, would be perfectly justified to "round 'em all up" (as well as anyone who looks like 'em) and put them in internment camps like we, and a few other ill-fated regimes did pre/post: WWII. Remember, not all of the dreamers are Scandinavian and there are more than a few of them that came here from "shit-holes" just trying to survive. So rather than just look at the numbers, as policy wonks are known to do, as a life long resident of the Shining City on the Hill, I absolutely believe we need to show at least some level of compassion and make the proposed internment camps as nice and comfortable as possible. Perhaps we can go a step-or-two up from those, although well intentioned (a guy's gotta live within a budget), but sparse, Joe Arpaio "tent city concentration camps"?
Like everything we do in America, our internment camps should be world class and set an example for the global community. Of course, by building these camps we'd be doing the Dreamers a huge favor (low cost temporary housing) since, after all, they shouldn't have come here in the first place. Yup....as Americans, we understand that it's always important to do the right thing and treat inferior, minority, non-Scandinavian people somewhere near the way we'd want to be treated if we were in their shoes, which, fortunately for us, would never happen.
In addition, even though, under the US Code, we aren't required to do so for non-US citizens, I also propose that we provide free legal assistance (adding even more government spending to GDP) for the Dreamers. After all, we gave real terrorists at Gitmo free legal help, so it's the least we can do for the Dreamers.
So when we add the additional legal cost and the cost to build some really nice, world class internment camps, we can probably make the number $40 Billion to dump the Dreamers.....That's right, we're creating GDP and economic growth at every corner! With this type of guaranteed GDP growth on the table, why in the world would anyone embrace those silly "path to citizenship" proposals?
Now, of course you could also argue that these potential near-criminals are actually stealing US Jobs, enrollment slots at our universities, government resources and hospital beds. Yes, that could be true. Whenever I see a "help wanted" sign for a minimum wage job with horrible, unsafe working conditions there is always a long line of middle aged well-dressed Scandinavian-looking people clamoring to work the fields, wash dishes and haul shingles and rough lumber up and down ladders in the hot sun. These wonderful jobs are clearly at risk of being ripped away from rightful hands of American workers if we allow the Dreamers to remain.
Of course, the next logical step, once we get these Dreamers out of our country, is to finally BUILD THAT WALL! We certainly don't want the Dreamers coming back! This should absolutely be part of the negotiations through February 8th. I can't think of a better use of tax dollars than to spend $30 Billion on a 20 ft. wall (that can be breached with a 25 ft. ladder) designed to keep frightened, starving Mexican people and other bad hombres from fleeing the gunfire in Juarez and Nogales, marching fifty miles through a sweltering desert in hopes of someday fulfilling their American dream by picking American strawberries, cutting American lawns, washing American dishes and occasionally selling American opioids (McKesson, Cardinal, et. al.) to quasi-law-abiding Caucasian Americans. These jobs, after all, are the god-given birthright of illegal Scandinavians.
Of course, if the "wall" works as it's proposed, my understanding is that the Canadians are considering a similar program. They're simply using the American program as a test case. Canadians are fiscally responsible folks. They just want to see how it goes before they pony up the funds.
Moreover, the proposed, but toothless effort to fund ICE enforcement in a full frontal assault on American businesses who've been chronically breaking immigration laws, and actually apply the stiff employer penalties ($10,000+ per violation) that have been on the books for years, would be absolutely unnecessary once we have that wall built! Employers could continue to openly hire whoever they want, with no record keeping, pay their employees in cash under the table and beat the snot out of them without repercussion if the illegal employees do something against company policy, just like they do now.....but they can do it much more efficiently with much less paperwork and no fear of government intervention with the free market flow of illegal labor! That is, after all, what deregulation is all about....
If, god forbid, we chose to enforce these laws and slap big fines on politically connected employers, that action would absolutely destroy any incentive for the Dreamers to come/stay here. Perhaps, they'd all go "back to where they came from"....then where would we be? We'd have crops rotting in the fields. Slaughter houses would be idled. Cow's udders would be exploding in the barns because there would be no cheap illegal labor available to milk them! There would be no need to hand out big fat government contracts to build a gigantic wall and hire more border security. Even though the "fleeing the Juarez and Nogales gunfire" incentive would still exist, that fifty mile death march in a sweltering desert would become much less attractive for the fleeing Mexican people if there were no American job waiting for them at the end of the trail. Perhaps they might consider staying in Mexico and heading south, into the mountains for safety? Perhaps reducing the size of the massive herd that's crossing now might make it a little easier to identify and pick off the bad hombres? It's hard to say, but the laws are already on the books and presumably there for a reason.
In fact, my understanding is that larger Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas employers, treat the ability to survive a harrowing desert crossing, and evade ICE as a quasi management training program. The ingenuity, perseverance, hard work, austerity and creativity required to survive as an undocumented alien in America are qualities that every employer is looking for. No wonder the demand for this labor class is at an all time high. ICE enforcement versus cheap labor is indeed the premier economic trade off of the day.
That's right, there is also unfortunately an economic downside to every public policy. With increased ICE enforcement and the absence of cheap "imported" labor the price of strawberries, lettuce, dairy products, new construction and lawn care would double, and many of my favorite restaurants would go under. But that's the price we'll have to pay for a secure border. Yup.....I, for one, am really glad our leadership understands these difficult to grasp concepts.
Even MORE Economic Growth Within Easy Reach....
But wait, there's more! We're just scratching the surface on generating huge gobs of additional GDP. It's just come to my attention that more than half of the potential Dreamers are actually unarmed! That's right, our government has systematically denied them their Second Amendment rights. We must put an end to this injustice NOW! If you've had a chance to visit Arizona, home to many of the Dreamers, and you've personally witnessed the running gun battles on the mean streets of Tuscon, Phoenix and Scottsdale (maybe not so much Scottsdale...), as I have (from a distance), you'd know that some of the Dreamers are woefully outgunned.
To that end I've proposed, in a strongly worded letter to my Ohio Senators, Messrs. Brown and Portman, that we take immediate action to fund firearms subsidies for the Dreamers. In Phoenix, like Kabul and Aleppo, we have to level the playing field. If we don't provide the necessary firepower for the Dreamers to defend themselves it won't be long before they start getting pushed around by the more heavily armed and treacherous Scandinavian-looking Americans. I am, of course talking about the long overdue, Federal Assault Rifle Training Education & Distribution program, that's been stuck in committee for decades.
In order to really get the biggest "bang" for our GDP buck (so to speak) we need to extend this program, not only to the Dreamers, but to every, law abiding, God-fearing American. Right now, roughly 2/3rds of all Americans DON'T OWN A GUN!. ...How can this be? I grew up in Wisconsin. My Dad gave me a shotgun when I graduated from grade school. It was a right of passage. The wealthiest country in the world and most of our citizens don't have semi-automatic weapons? THIS MUST CHANGE NOW! If we fully fund this long delayed program we can be well on our way to universal gun ownership.
Here's the GDP math.....
Let's summarize. If we choose to throw the Dreamers out ($40 Billion in new GDP), plus build that wall ($30 Billion in New GDP), and we enforce employer sanctions and fines (a few hundred million in GDP) and fully fund Federal Assault Rifle Training Education & Distribution program($532.7 Billion) we are starting to talk about some real economic growth.
Further adding to GDP (Consumption) Food cost would jump from $1.5 Trillion to about $1.8 Trillion! That's another $300 Billion of added GDP. New Housing construction cost would also move up a hundred billion or so due to higher priced Scandinavian-looking labor. So all in all, we're probably closing in on a TRILLION DOLLARS of additional GDP and another 1.8 million pseudo-Scandinavian-Americans could be put back to work once the Dreamers get the boot....albeit at back-breaking-ball-busting, no-benefits, under the table, below-minimum wage jobs. But hey.....they're jobs!
All we have to do is systematically round up the Dreamers, secure our borders and fully arm our citizens! That's MAGA BABY! That's what I'm talking about! Although again, I have to emphasize, skyrocketing food, housing and service industry prices aren't all that attractive to me, but again, MAGA comes with a price tag. Freedom "don't come cheap".
And you thought the Chinese government was the only global source for unproductive, fake GDP! Those vacant Chinese apartments, excess capacity and bridges to nowhere can't hold a candle to good old fashioned American know-how and ingenuity. China might have ghost cities, but we've got Dreamers! We've got really expensive, rationed health care (the best in the world) that many of us can't find or afford. We have a wonderful combination of absurdly high-cost college and underfunded primary education. We have cheap, heavily marketed opiods and military grade weaponry on every street corner! Take that Xi, you ain't even close to the American dream!
The most frightening thing about the plan I describe above, and again I'm just guessing here, is that some people who read this will actually be nodding their heads in full agreement, believing that everything I just wrote is a peachy-keen economic plan which, by coincidence, also happens to reduce government intervention in their lives, gets them a new assault rifle and solves all of our immigration issues in one thundering thud.
My Advice to My Fellow Americans
The only thing I can suggest is, like Lincoln's audience at Gettysburg, that we, as a country, take some time to mourn what's happened to us. After an appropriate period, perhaps by the November(s) of 2018 and 2020, we should conclude our grieving. Like the poor folks at Gettysburg, we should move forward and make our decisions based solely on our own, very personal life's experience, rather than what other nameless, faceless "friends" are telling us.
Of course, far be it from me to tell anyone what to do. Since I fully acknowledge that I, as a concerned citizen, with only one vote to my name, have virtually no control over any of this mess. Again, all we can do is move forward and make the best decisions we can.
Given what's happened in American politics over the last decade or so, what we've heard and seen has been vastly different from what we've "got". Moreover, the harsh reality is that we need to come to grips with our own fallibility. We, as an electorate, are simply not capable of figuring out who's lying and who's telling the truth. We can't tell a good idea from a bad one. We're unable to identify intelligent, skilled politicians who've been around the block, know what they're doing, think for themselves, aren't shackled to party ideology and are willing to cross the isle to work with members of the other party to actually get something done. We can't tell a potential statesman from a likely charlatan. We think we can, but we can't.
Since, apparently, no one is part of the solution, by default, everyone is part of the problem. Here's the list. Twenty six (26) of our 100 Senators have been on the job for more than 15 years. They've methodically governed over this disease while it has insidiously festered. I'd ask, in what other endeavor, save government service, could someone measure their entire career's success, not by what they've accomplished, but by their ability to thwart the accomplishments of others? Leahy (43 years), Hatch (41 years), Grassley (37 years), McConnell (33 years), Feinstein (25 years), Murray (25 years), Durbin (21 years), etc. etc. etc. I'm sure that they are all, in their own way, wonderful, patriotic people, fiercely loyal to their party. Their easily manipulated constituents, I'm sure, love them. Unfortunately, we don't need any more loyal, lovable patriots in government. We need public servants who can work together effectively to solve problems.
It's becoming clearer by the day that we might never be able to drain the swamp. Through some sort of political magic, far too many of our public servant Senators somehow manage to accumulate enormous wealth in a few short years while collecting their comparatively minuscule $174,000/yr. salary. I wonder how they do it? Although the swamp will undoubtedly remain full, we can certainly make an effort to replace the big old 'gators on a regular basis. Since these folks would never agree to term limits, it's up to us, the bumbling electorate to take charge. Like a legislative yard sale.... everything and everyone must go.
That said, over the next few elections, without regard to party affiliation, for any federal office, I plan on naively voting for anyone who does not have the word "incumbent" associated with their name until things start to improve. I've come to the point where I don't care who's in office, as long as it's "somebody else".
Finally, to re-coin a relatively famous phrase from a big-ly popular reality TV show, directed toward our current beltway leadership:
"You're Fired!"
Additional Reading
Who are the Dreamers?
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/who-and-where-dreamers-are-revised-estimates
Deportation Costs
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/13/news/economy/deportation-costs-undocumented-immigrant/index.html
PS: It doesn't matter if any of the sources or figures I've cited above are accurate. Now that it's all on the Internet it can be freely quoted as yet another version of the "truth".
The Gettysburg Address via "Tweet"....
Abe: "Fourscore and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, on this continent, a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal."
Tweet: "87 years ago we started the USA. Today, SLAVERY! NOT GOOD! But some of the slave owners are probably good people...."
Abe: "Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting-place for those who here gave their lives, that that nation might live."
Tweet: "We have a VERY DANGEROUS SOUTHERN BORDER. I feel bad for these dead Gettysburg losers. AMERICANS ARE WINNERS!! BUILD A WALL! WIN! WIN!"
Abe: "It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate—we cannot hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract."
Tweet: "AMERICA FIRST! CIVIL WAR....NOT MY FAULT! NOT MY PROBLEM!"
Abe: "The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.
Tweet: "GETTYSBURG NEVER HAPPENED! FAKE NEWS!"
Abe: "It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."
Tweet: "Stock Market's UP! Unemployment DOWN! Taxes DOWN! Black people have more jobs than ever! Jobs coming back. USA...USA....USA!"
http://rmc.library.cornell.edu/gettysburg/good_cause/transcript.htm
To be honest, and I'm serious, I'm not sure which, the original, the PowerPoint or the Tweet is more effective. In context, they each get the job done, impacting their intended audience in their own particular way.
Although (of course), I wasn't there, my guess would be that the audience at Gettysburg, surrounded by their wounded loved ones, shortly after burying their dead, had a much more personal, emotional, tragic and memorable experience than those who click through PowerPoints in a conference room or scan through Tweets on their phones at the airport. Lincoln's words were more personal to those souls who endured and survived Gettysburg than anything most of us could possibly, or hopefully ever will, imagine.
The point I'm making is that we all receive (and perceive) messages based on our personal experiences. Our own experiences filter and interpret the message. Whether you are an insurance salesman, economist/blogger; a Senator, investor, accountant or banker, a foreign government official/operative/diplomat, a soldier deployed overseas in harms way; recently or chronically unemployed, or like most of us, just trying to make your way, as best you can on this big blue marble, we all hear the same words, but we hear them differently. We choose to hear what we want to hear. The "truth" has become malleable.
Somehow we've gotten to the point where concepts like good and bad, right and wrong, accurate and inaccurate are an opinion, rather than an absolute. As we sit on our overstuffed La-Z-Boy couches in front of our Facebook feeds, Tweets and favorite TV talking heads, oblivious and sheltered from any point of view that conflicts with our own limited, preconceived experience, we are fitfully outraged by attacks on our version of the truth. Whether Democrat or Republican, we agonize over our leadership under assault by philistine-barbarians who don't understand the issues and lie about the facts (as we see them). Everyone who disagrees with us and/or threatens our own vested interest is consequently labeled either a bigoted, war mongering racist or a flag burning anti-American liberal. When we hear something we disagree with, our immediate response is "Oh Yeah!....so's your Mother!" If/when we objectively consider another persons point of view our like-minded constituents deem us to be spineless and weak. Open minded compromise is a wimp's disease and must be eradicated.
We fret over whether the current government shutdown will disrupt our day. Worry consumes us as we wonder whether our government benefits will be delayed, or services we depend on will be reduced or disrupted. We feel threatened by evil people from mysterious foreign lands who will surely bomb us and/or take our jobs if given half a chance, even though we've never met any of these people and have no intention of doing so. We wait patiently, even though we've done nothing over the last decade to improve our personal circumstance, for some mythical person to walk through our front door and offer us the job of a lifetime. Finally, in the absence of any productive endeavor to fill the void, we spend our time analyzing the never ending flow of misdirection, develop deep "E-relationships" with like-minded anonymous Facebook "friends" and bitch about whose fault "it" all is, and of course, who we should blame.
Our Disfunctional Government
I believe that this might be the first (and hopefully only) time that I'll ever say anything in this blog that could be even remotely considered "political" in nature. This blog is dedicated solely to the examination of "general silliness" in the US Financial Markets. On the other hand, when "general political silliness" impacts financial markets I, for better or worse, feel an obligation to speak up.
Right now, our government has been "shut down" and reopened with another "shut down" ominously looming on February 8th. To me, "shut down" is a bit of an oxymoron since nearly every government service in America remains operational. Every government service is apparently deemed to be "essential". Checks are still being written, mail is being delivered and most government employees are being paid (or their wages are being accrued). Troops are still deployed and the missile silos are still manned. Of course, if you planned a trip to the Smithsonian or Yellowstone, you might be out of luck, at least for now. This, in my humble opinion is a teeny-tiny price to pay for a front row seat to watch our muddling democracy in action.
How did this "shut down" come about? Right now, we can point to our wonderfully amazing two party system of government where, unfortunately, neither side is willing to give ground on, well, just about anything. The Republican "blow it up and fix it later" approach (blowing things up is always more fun than fixing them!) has run head long into the Democrats' "if we just spend more money with no accountability to keep everyone happy everything will eventually work out" plan.
As we've witnessed first hand, based on the last election, the Democrat's plan has been violently disrupted, leaving them scrambling for a "win". Oddly enough, they've chosen to draw a line in the sand with......wait for it.... the Dreamers! Yeah!.....that's the ticket....that's something they can publicize and win! Forget about fixing healthcare, funding for infrastructure or education or stopping the most regressive tax cut in history......the Dreamers is the issue on which the Democrats will make their last stand.
From high altitude, we can see the logic. This should have been a no-brainer. This should have been an "easy" compromise and an easy political victory for the minority Democrats. They could finally tell their constituents "Hey!.....we did something!". Moreover, with a compromise, there's no additional cost to extending/keeping DACA. This could have been agreed to behind closed doors, slipped into the appropriation at the 11th hour, as so much usually is, before anyone has a chance to read it, understand it or Tweet about it, and nobody would have known (or cared) that much about it. Business as usual. Yet, in our current politically charged "win at all cost" environment, our legislators chose to publicize this debate in a presumed, yet ham handed effort on the part of both parties to rile up their respective bases. The result is that they've shown the American people that they are woefully incapable of compromise on virtually any level, much less on policy issues that should be as cut and dried and solvable as this.
Now....Let's Talk Economic Development and GDP Growth!
As a cold, calculating financial person, here's the way I see it. Without regard to personal feelings or human hardship, if our government chooses to let the Dreamers stay in America, it costs us nothing additional. Everything remains as is. Steady as she goes. If we choose to deport them, the direct cost, over time, would be somewhere around $23 Billion. (The ICE Budget in 2016 was $3.2 Billion and they deported 240,000 people. Per the AIC (American Immigration Council) in 2012 there were roughly 1.8 Million people who could possibly qualify as Dreamers.....and a total of roughly eleven (11) million "undocumenteds"....probably about half of the 1.8 million actually met the DACA requirements in 2012 ....so we'd have to really ramp up the staff to grab 'em all! Moreover, since some/many of these people are successful, respected, hard working folks, my guess is that if we tried to throw them out of the country and take their property they might put up a bit of a legal fight, so the deportation cost per-capita could/would increase significantly. So let's say, due to additional staffing, training inefficiencies and unknown legal costs that the bill to get rid of these folks would come in at an even $30 Billion.
One dirty little secret, that's simply not discussed in polite company, when you think about it, that $30 Billion is actually a boost to US GDP! (Remember C+I+G+(x-i)?) If we toss out the Dreamers we're pumping up the "G". This is obviously part of the administration's master plan for economic growth! I suppose you could also argue that there are probably some "bad hombres" and potential terrorists in this group, so we, as Americans, if we chose, would be perfectly justified to "round 'em all up" (as well as anyone who looks like 'em) and put them in internment camps like we, and a few other ill-fated regimes did pre/post: WWII. Remember, not all of the dreamers are Scandinavian and there are more than a few of them that came here from "shit-holes" just trying to survive. So rather than just look at the numbers, as policy wonks are known to do, as a life long resident of the Shining City on the Hill, I absolutely believe we need to show at least some level of compassion and make the proposed internment camps as nice and comfortable as possible. Perhaps we can go a step-or-two up from those, although well intentioned (a guy's gotta live within a budget), but sparse, Joe Arpaio "tent city concentration camps"?
Like everything we do in America, our internment camps should be world class and set an example for the global community. Of course, by building these camps we'd be doing the Dreamers a huge favor (low cost temporary housing) since, after all, they shouldn't have come here in the first place. Yup....as Americans, we understand that it's always important to do the right thing and treat inferior, minority, non-Scandinavian people somewhere near the way we'd want to be treated if we were in their shoes, which, fortunately for us, would never happen.
In addition, even though, under the US Code, we aren't required to do so for non-US citizens, I also propose that we provide free legal assistance (adding even more government spending to GDP) for the Dreamers. After all, we gave real terrorists at Gitmo free legal help, so it's the least we can do for the Dreamers.
So when we add the additional legal cost and the cost to build some really nice, world class internment camps, we can probably make the number $40 Billion to dump the Dreamers.....That's right, we're creating GDP and economic growth at every corner! With this type of guaranteed GDP growth on the table, why in the world would anyone embrace those silly "path to citizenship" proposals?
Now, of course you could also argue that these potential near-criminals are actually stealing US Jobs, enrollment slots at our universities, government resources and hospital beds. Yes, that could be true. Whenever I see a "help wanted" sign for a minimum wage job with horrible, unsafe working conditions there is always a long line of middle aged well-dressed Scandinavian-looking people clamoring to work the fields, wash dishes and haul shingles and rough lumber up and down ladders in the hot sun. These wonderful jobs are clearly at risk of being ripped away from rightful hands of American workers if we allow the Dreamers to remain.
Of course, the next logical step, once we get these Dreamers out of our country, is to finally BUILD THAT WALL! We certainly don't want the Dreamers coming back! This should absolutely be part of the negotiations through February 8th. I can't think of a better use of tax dollars than to spend $30 Billion on a 20 ft. wall (that can be breached with a 25 ft. ladder) designed to keep frightened, starving Mexican people and other bad hombres from fleeing the gunfire in Juarez and Nogales, marching fifty miles through a sweltering desert in hopes of someday fulfilling their American dream by picking American strawberries, cutting American lawns, washing American dishes and occasionally selling American opioids (McKesson, Cardinal, et. al.) to quasi-law-abiding Caucasian Americans. These jobs, after all, are the god-given birthright of illegal Scandinavians.
Of course, if the "wall" works as it's proposed, my understanding is that the Canadians are considering a similar program. They're simply using the American program as a test case. Canadians are fiscally responsible folks. They just want to see how it goes before they pony up the funds.
Moreover, the proposed, but toothless effort to fund ICE enforcement in a full frontal assault on American businesses who've been chronically breaking immigration laws, and actually apply the stiff employer penalties ($10,000+ per violation) that have been on the books for years, would be absolutely unnecessary once we have that wall built! Employers could continue to openly hire whoever they want, with no record keeping, pay their employees in cash under the table and beat the snot out of them without repercussion if the illegal employees do something against company policy, just like they do now.....but they can do it much more efficiently with much less paperwork and no fear of government intervention with the free market flow of illegal labor! That is, after all, what deregulation is all about....
If, god forbid, we chose to enforce these laws and slap big fines on politically connected employers, that action would absolutely destroy any incentive for the Dreamers to come/stay here. Perhaps, they'd all go "back to where they came from"....then where would we be? We'd have crops rotting in the fields. Slaughter houses would be idled. Cow's udders would be exploding in the barns because there would be no cheap illegal labor available to milk them! There would be no need to hand out big fat government contracts to build a gigantic wall and hire more border security. Even though the "fleeing the Juarez and Nogales gunfire" incentive would still exist, that fifty mile death march in a sweltering desert would become much less attractive for the fleeing Mexican people if there were no American job waiting for them at the end of the trail. Perhaps they might consider staying in Mexico and heading south, into the mountains for safety? Perhaps reducing the size of the massive herd that's crossing now might make it a little easier to identify and pick off the bad hombres? It's hard to say, but the laws are already on the books and presumably there for a reason.
In fact, my understanding is that larger Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas employers, treat the ability to survive a harrowing desert crossing, and evade ICE as a quasi management training program. The ingenuity, perseverance, hard work, austerity and creativity required to survive as an undocumented alien in America are qualities that every employer is looking for. No wonder the demand for this labor class is at an all time high. ICE enforcement versus cheap labor is indeed the premier economic trade off of the day.
That's right, there is also unfortunately an economic downside to every public policy. With increased ICE enforcement and the absence of cheap "imported" labor the price of strawberries, lettuce, dairy products, new construction and lawn care would double, and many of my favorite restaurants would go under. But that's the price we'll have to pay for a secure border. Yup.....I, for one, am really glad our leadership understands these difficult to grasp concepts.
Even MORE Economic Growth Within Easy Reach....
But wait, there's more! We're just scratching the surface on generating huge gobs of additional GDP. It's just come to my attention that more than half of the potential Dreamers are actually unarmed! That's right, our government has systematically denied them their Second Amendment rights. We must put an end to this injustice NOW! If you've had a chance to visit Arizona, home to many of the Dreamers, and you've personally witnessed the running gun battles on the mean streets of Tuscon, Phoenix and Scottsdale (maybe not so much Scottsdale...), as I have (from a distance), you'd know that some of the Dreamers are woefully outgunned.
To that end I've proposed, in a strongly worded letter to my Ohio Senators, Messrs. Brown and Portman, that we take immediate action to fund firearms subsidies for the Dreamers. In Phoenix, like Kabul and Aleppo, we have to level the playing field. If we don't provide the necessary firepower for the Dreamers to defend themselves it won't be long before they start getting pushed around by the more heavily armed and treacherous Scandinavian-looking Americans. I am, of course talking about the long overdue, Federal Assault Rifle Training Education & Distribution program, that's been stuck in committee for decades.
In order to really get the biggest "bang" for our GDP buck (so to speak) we need to extend this program, not only to the Dreamers, but to every, law abiding, God-fearing American. Right now, roughly 2/3rds of all Americans DON'T OWN A GUN!. ...How can this be? I grew up in Wisconsin. My Dad gave me a shotgun when I graduated from grade school. It was a right of passage. The wealthiest country in the world and most of our citizens don't have semi-automatic weapons? THIS MUST CHANGE NOW! If we fully fund this long delayed program we can be well on our way to universal gun ownership.
Here's the GDP math.....
- A new AR15 assault rifle would cost our government roughly $1,500 a piece (serial number "optional" models are slightly more), with ammo and additional add-ons (bump stocks, laser sites, etc.) we can add another $1,000 to the purchase price. So $2,500 x roughly 210 million brand new gun owners would generate $525 Billion in new GDP!
- Since there are roughly 35,000 gun deaths in America every year (2/3rds of which are suicides) (CDC Stats - pg 87) we can also expect a big GDP boost from funeral services associated with gun violence. Like, our airline industry executives, our legislators must wise up. (Airplanes don't kill people....pilots kill people....which is precisely why US Commercial Air carriers are moving away from those costly pilot training programs and background checks. They've seen the light! Statistics have shown that it's much better to just let passengers storm the cockpit and take matters into their own hands if they have a problem with what the pilot is doing... ) We, and America's gun lobby, must take full advantage of the opportunity before us. By providing the Dreamers and another 210 million currently unarmed Americans with assault weapons, we'll generate additional GDP of $1 Billion associated with Funeral Services. (70,000 additional gun deaths x $15,000 per funeral = $1 Billion)
- Increased Emergency Room services associated with the dead and wounded would also generate significant GDP, calculated roughly as follows. Since about 2/3rds of America's gunshot victims survive, when we extrapolate, increased GDP due to ramped up ER Services would be calculated as: 70,000 additional deaths....since they still get an ambulance ride to the emergency room and a couple of attempts at life support.....plus the additional 140,000 survivors, multiplied by the average cost of a critical care ER visit of $20,000 is (210,000 visits x $20,000 = $4.2 Billion.....a veritable bonanza of GDP! That's tens of thousands of new, high-paying medical jobs!
- The 140,000 GSS (Gun Shot Survivors) would also need rehabilitation and home health care for a reasonable time, so let's say, just as a SWAG, 140,000 victims x $3,000/month x 6 months = $2.5 Billion in additional GDP. More health care jobs!
Summary Of All the Brand New GDP!....$1 Trillion +
Let's summarize. If we choose to throw the Dreamers out ($40 Billion in new GDP), plus build that wall ($30 Billion in New GDP), and we enforce employer sanctions and fines (a few hundred million in GDP) and fully fund Federal Assault Rifle Training Education & Distribution program($532.7 Billion) we are starting to talk about some real economic growth.
Further adding to GDP (Consumption) Food cost would jump from $1.5 Trillion to about $1.8 Trillion! That's another $300 Billion of added GDP. New Housing construction cost would also move up a hundred billion or so due to higher priced Scandinavian-looking labor. So all in all, we're probably closing in on a TRILLION DOLLARS of additional GDP and another 1.8 million pseudo-Scandinavian-Americans could be put back to work once the Dreamers get the boot....albeit at back-breaking-ball-busting, no-benefits, under the table, below-minimum wage jobs. But hey.....they're jobs!
All we have to do is systematically round up the Dreamers, secure our borders and fully arm our citizens! That's MAGA BABY! That's what I'm talking about! Although again, I have to emphasize, skyrocketing food, housing and service industry prices aren't all that attractive to me, but again, MAGA comes with a price tag. Freedom "don't come cheap".
And you thought the Chinese government was the only global source for unproductive, fake GDP! Those vacant Chinese apartments, excess capacity and bridges to nowhere can't hold a candle to good old fashioned American know-how and ingenuity. China might have ghost cities, but we've got Dreamers! We've got really expensive, rationed health care (the best in the world) that many of us can't find or afford. We have a wonderful combination of absurdly high-cost college and underfunded primary education. We have cheap, heavily marketed opiods and military grade weaponry on every street corner! Take that Xi, you ain't even close to the American dream!
The most frightening thing about the plan I describe above, and again I'm just guessing here, is that some people who read this will actually be nodding their heads in full agreement, believing that everything I just wrote is a peachy-keen economic plan which, by coincidence, also happens to reduce government intervention in their lives, gets them a new assault rifle and solves all of our immigration issues in one thundering thud.
My Advice to My Fellow Americans
The only thing I can suggest is, like Lincoln's audience at Gettysburg, that we, as a country, take some time to mourn what's happened to us. After an appropriate period, perhaps by the November(s) of 2018 and 2020, we should conclude our grieving. Like the poor folks at Gettysburg, we should move forward and make our decisions based solely on our own, very personal life's experience, rather than what other nameless, faceless "friends" are telling us.
Of course, far be it from me to tell anyone what to do. Since I fully acknowledge that I, as a concerned citizen, with only one vote to my name, have virtually no control over any of this mess. Again, all we can do is move forward and make the best decisions we can.
Given what's happened in American politics over the last decade or so, what we've heard and seen has been vastly different from what we've "got". Moreover, the harsh reality is that we need to come to grips with our own fallibility. We, as an electorate, are simply not capable of figuring out who's lying and who's telling the truth. We can't tell a good idea from a bad one. We're unable to identify intelligent, skilled politicians who've been around the block, know what they're doing, think for themselves, aren't shackled to party ideology and are willing to cross the isle to work with members of the other party to actually get something done. We can't tell a potential statesman from a likely charlatan. We think we can, but we can't.
Since, apparently, no one is part of the solution, by default, everyone is part of the problem. Here's the list. Twenty six (26) of our 100 Senators have been on the job for more than 15 years. They've methodically governed over this disease while it has insidiously festered. I'd ask, in what other endeavor, save government service, could someone measure their entire career's success, not by what they've accomplished, but by their ability to thwart the accomplishments of others? Leahy (43 years), Hatch (41 years), Grassley (37 years), McConnell (33 years), Feinstein (25 years), Murray (25 years), Durbin (21 years), etc. etc. etc. I'm sure that they are all, in their own way, wonderful, patriotic people, fiercely loyal to their party. Their easily manipulated constituents, I'm sure, love them. Unfortunately, we don't need any more loyal, lovable patriots in government. We need public servants who can work together effectively to solve problems.
It's becoming clearer by the day that we might never be able to drain the swamp. Through some sort of political magic, far too many of our public servant Senators somehow manage to accumulate enormous wealth in a few short years while collecting their comparatively minuscule $174,000/yr. salary. I wonder how they do it? Although the swamp will undoubtedly remain full, we can certainly make an effort to replace the big old 'gators on a regular basis. Since these folks would never agree to term limits, it's up to us, the bumbling electorate to take charge. Like a legislative yard sale.... everything and everyone must go.
That said, over the next few elections, without regard to party affiliation, for any federal office, I plan on naively voting for anyone who does not have the word "incumbent" associated with their name until things start to improve. I've come to the point where I don't care who's in office, as long as it's "somebody else".
Finally, to re-coin a relatively famous phrase from a big-ly popular reality TV show, directed toward our current beltway leadership:
"You're Fired!"
Additional Reading
Who are the Dreamers?
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/who-and-where-dreamers-are-revised-estimates
Deportation Costs
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/13/news/economy/deportation-costs-undocumented-immigrant/index.html
PS: It doesn't matter if any of the sources or figures I've cited above are accurate. Now that it's all on the Internet it can be freely quoted as yet another version of the "truth".
That's it. Voting with my feet. Let me paraphrase your Chinese friends and your favourite President:
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Agreed Kreso....the Donald is fun to watch. Thanks for taking the time to read my work. I'll miss your input...all the best!
DeleteAh the old "I'm gonna show I'm right down the middle and vote for the other guy technique". Spare me! That requires as much thought as our Kardashian watching, brain dead electorate puts into their election decisions. Are there problems with some of the geezers hanging on too long? Of course, but there have also been some people that stuck around in congress forever that made enormous contributions to this country.
ReplyDeleteLook at the situation, make a determination and vote accordingly. That's how democracy should work. Anything short of that and you're just as guilty as the rest of brain dead America. Just saying "I'm voting for the other guy" is merely a protest vote and that's how you end up with a bizaro, thin skinned orange man running your country!
Agreed Greg....it's a bit of a cop out. But again, I recognize my own fallibility. I can no longer believe what I'm being told or make a good decision. What I see/hear is no longer what I get. When one of our politicians accomplishes something, or anything for that matter, that I deem worthwhile, I'll be happy to vote for them.
ReplyDeleteCould you name a few of the politicians, currently in office, who've made "enormous contributions to this country"? I'd like to research their record(s) and review what they've actually done. My feeling is that, in public, they all talk a great game, then behind closed doors, they vote to advance special interest agendas. Their constituents (us), sadly, get left behind.
I thought I posted a reply but evidently the Lufthansa internet service doesn't work too well. Anyway, I would site John McCain, Bob Corker and Jeff Flake as politicians making a large contribution right now by standing up for democracy at a time we sorely need it. I've always been a big McCain fan even though I am on the other side politically. He has proven to be a man of high character and I value that in a politician. On the other side I would site Bernie Sanders and Adam Schiff as two politicians that are of high character and contribute to our democratic process. All these people are men of principle and are worthy of their positions.
DeleteLook, I get what you're saying but what are supposed to do, give in to Kardashianism? How did we get to the point where "the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun". As if life were a Clint Eastwood movie! How did we get to the point where a fair portion of our electorate is openly embracing the primative beliefs of white nationalism? I'll tell you...... Because we placated stupidity as if it had a valid argument merely because "it was the other side". Obviously, I lean more towards Democrats but I firmly believe there are a lot of good Republican politicians out there. Unfortunately, right now the far right has highjacked the Republican agenda and they preying on our worst vulnerabilities. Protest votes are what put them in the position of power.
So I say vote early and vote often! Just voting for the opposing candidate merely because they are the opposing candidate is what got us to where we are today. We are better than that and we need all the sane people we can get voting right now no matter what their political leanings are.
Well said.....I'll take your comments one at a time.
DeleteI've always been a fan of McCain, he's an example of a loyal, devoted, patriot and public servant. But he's in the twilight of his career and his health is failing. Flake talks a good game, but is a relative newbie with no real legislative record who is also stepping aside. I spend a lot of time in Arizona and I'd suggest to you that these two Senators stood on the sidelines as their state, under their watch, became a racially divided cauldron and the epicenter of the immigration debate. Though they've talked a great game, and said all the right things, the sad results are far from reflective of their wonderful, but ineffective rhetoric.
Bernie Sanders, sadly, is just as divisive as Trump, he can't get anything done. I'm trying to think of one significant piece of legislation Bernie has sponsored and I'm drawing a blank. Perhaps you can help me out? He's a master at motivating his base though.
I don't know much about Adam Schiff so I'll have to get back to you on him.
We've already got a "Kardashian" government. (btw...I like that reference...it's perfect) There's no substance anymore, just shell games and fluff designed to rile people up, energize a "base" and keep the "riler" in office. The game has transitioned from governing to "getting elected and keeping the office".
If we look at the "news" today, 90% of it is designed to get ratings and sell advertising rather than to communicate relevant, accurate information helpful to the news consumer.
The gun violence in the country is a cancer.... although it generates tons of tragic GDP! Usually, when I cite the suicide statistic, people don't believe it.....they think that all of the shootings are gang violence, robberies and police shootings, which are a tiny percentage of the total. In reality, most gun violence is suicide and domestic violence....but apparently, that's not news.
Perhaps I'm ahead of the curve with my satire. That's the premise behind my "think for yourself" advice.
"Like the poor folks at Gettysburg, we should move forward and make our decisions based solely on our own, very personal life's experience, rather than what other nameless, faceless "friends" are telling us."
We're probably saying the same things, I'm just trying to identify a relationship between the rhetoric and the results. I can't find one.
Like the investment/business adviser who you consider a good friend, nice person and talks a great game....yet you continue to lose money and he/she can't explain how it happened....he/she has to go.
I have a phrase that describes the folks (and they are everywhere) that can work this motivational magic:
"Often in error.....never in doubt"
Thanks for taking the time to read my work....
Cheap dreamer labour is certainly going to be more devastating to african americans than to wite scandinavian americans
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